Is That Badenoch For You?
Conservative decline is untold story of Gorton and Denton
Amid the various narratives emerging from The Green Party’s shock victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, one story appears to have been overlooked - the cratering of the Conservative vote. The UK’s official opposition party polled just 2%.
To be fair, this Manchester constituency has rarely been fertile territory for the Tories. At the last general election, they polled just 2,888 as Labour’s Andrew Gwynne romped home. But in the middle of an election cycle and with an unpopular Prime Minister in office, this should have been the moment when Kemi Badenoch’s remodelled blues showed they were serious challengers for power. Instead, they shed three quarters of their votes, falling to just 788. Bear in mind, too, that unlike most by-elections, the turnout here was actually higher than at the GE.
It’s not that voters were afraid to vote for a right-wing party. 10,758 of them put an ‘X’ in the box for Reform UK. So is the problem with Badenoch’s policies? Her personality? Or her party?
Perhaps it’s a mixture of all three. She has certainly taken the Conservatives to the right in an attempt to challenge Nigel Farage - promising to quit the European Convention on Human Rights, for example. In news that should surprise no-one, the message has come back that voters aren’t interested Reform-Lite when they can have the real thing.
The Tories aren’t helped, either, by the economic legacy of their 14 years in government. Many of the problems of low growth and stagnating real incomes can be traced back to the austerity years of Cameron and Osborne, not to mention the car crash of the 44-day Liz Truss premiership. But this should be an issue for Reform, too - in theory at least - since their front-bench recruitment strategy seems to amount to hiring failed, discredited or disgraced former Tory ministers, including Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Nadine Dorries, Danny Kruger and Suella Braverman, along with one-time Chancellor Nadim Zahawi. Caught in a certain light, Reform UK looks like the Conservatives in drag.
The difference is that the insurgent party has Farage, the architect of Brexit, which still remains a casus belli for a significant minority of voters, especially in traditional Labour heartlands, despite the demonstrable harm it has caused the British economy. That, and his ability to set Cruft’s howling with his rhetoric around immigration, sets him apart.
That said, this was not a good result for Reform, who had a high profile, telegenic candidate in Matt Goodwin. Despite the luxury of pouring their resources into a single seat, they fell almost 4,000 votes short of victory. It was also a grim night for Labour, whose vote halved. Sir Keir Starmer might survive as party leader and PM until the local elections in May, but at this rate, not much longer after that. The Greens, offering a Corbynist prescription of more nationalisation and higher taxes for the rich under the charismatic leadership of Zack Polanski, now have the right to be taken seriously as potential partners in government.
What though of the Conservatives? Badenoch recently rejected the overtures of Ruth Davidson and Andy Street, who are offering a more conciliatory version of Conservatism, through their Prosper UK movement. Their ‘one nation’ prospectus feels at odds with the party’s current divisive rhetoric around asylum seekers and small boats, but it may signal a way ahead for the Tories if they ever want to see the inside of 10 Downing Street again.